I’ve always understood that businesses have a cycle. And what makes good managers and visionary leadership is the ability to ride it. With the possible exception of a startup, which is in a perpetual mad dash, businesses from the service industry to retail to tech all have a native cycle of ebbs and flows.
Retail’s cycle is heavily influenced by holidays and seasonality, whereas dining often depends on larger economic factors. Anything can dictate the cycle, from tax season to when homeowners are typically looking to get their gutters cleaned. There can also be unforeseeable impacts on a cycle, like a major storm. And everyone is impacted by macro trends like pandemics, wars, and economic ups and downs.
Today, we are talking about normal business cycles, which are more or less predictable.
The first step is recognizing this fundamental truth. But what makes a great leader isn’t just recognizing the curve, but making the most of it. I wouldn’t recommend patting yourself on the back for a “good month” when everyone in your industry is having a good month – that means you haven’t done anything extra to earn the increased business.
But neither should you beat yourself up for a slow period when your competitors are in the same slump as you. Instead, judge based on your ability to surf the wave. When times are good, make a plan or launch a product to capitalize on the influx of business that you know you can expect. You want something new and shiny to further drive up a rising interest level and earn those marginal extra dollars.
Conversely, when things are slow, know that you probably won’t set records. Maybe you don’t offer up your juiciest sale but you try some new ideas, or creative packages. If you fail, not much lost. If you win, congratulations, you just made something happen.
Your goal is to “make a big day bigger” when people are likely to buy and to find “a little pearl” when it is not. In either case, creativity and leadership puts you above the curve regardless of how high or how low that curve may be.
Up cycles are all about pushing yourself higher instead of waiting for the wave to lift you. And if you’re using the slow season as an excuse to knock off early, then you risk sliding into the worst of the trough. Weak managers ride the wave and accept wherever it takes them, but strong leaders maximize their direction so that they’re always in the best possible position.